Shiban Jno:
Hello everyone. You're watching WION „World is One“. I'm Shiban Jno.
As for several sources Vladimir Putin has decided to run for president in the March presidential election in Russia, a move that will keep him in power until 2030. Now Russia has gone through a perilous period and Putin feels he must steer Russia through. With Putin at the helm of affairs, how will this impact the ongoing war in Ukraine and how will it impact Russia's global imprint and the ongoing tensions with global Powers?
Now to discuss Russia 's future course under Putin's reign we are joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow. He's an international affairs analyst, author, and historian. He joins us from Brussels. Dr. Doctorow, always a pleasure to have you on board.
Gilbert Doctorow:
Thanks for the invitation.
Shiban Jno:
Dr. Doctorow, how do you see the Russia-Ukraine war proceeding under another term of Vladimir Putin's leadership?
Gilbert Doctorow:
Well, first I'd like to just make one small correction. Technically speaking, Mr. Putin has not not declared his candidacy. He'll do that in December, after the exact date of the elections has been announced.
Nonetheless what you say is correct substantially. Everyone expects him to be the candidate.
Shiban Jno:
Yes and it is 100% confirmed. The Kremlin has confirmed that he's a candidate.
Gilbert Doctorow:
The point to make looking at the future is that Mr. Putin – despite everything that you read in mainstream western media – is not the only person in power in Russia. He has formed an most impressive team. He has been a fantastic man manager and that means that he has always had in his immediate entourage people of various opinions and various philosophies of government. So we're speaking about a Putin team that is run by Mr Putin and not just by one Mr. Putin running the show himself. That has to be made clear.
For that very reason – and that is not an idle observation – for that very reason we have to understand that with or without Mr. Putin in power the Russian foreign policy and domestic policy, the contours have been set for many years to come by the very group around him among whom are potential successors.
Now what does this mean for the Ukraine war? The Ukraine war is now in the shadows and I think it will not reemerge into the front page news for anytime soon. The United States in particular is of two minds on this subject. The primacy of the Ukraine war in mainstream was a sore point for the United States when it became clear that Russia could not be defeated on the field of battle and that is now manifestly clear. The current byword in United States and European media is that the war has reached an impass, that it is at a stalemate. That is what is being propagated in all of our news media. It is manifestly false.
The war is a stalemate only when you look at the line of demarcation, the line of confrontation between the two sides, which indeed has not changed substantially over the last 6 months. But that is to miss the point of the war. The war is a war of attrition and the Russians have largely succeeded in their mission of demilitarizing Ukraine. Now that may sound like an overstatement because every day we read about so many sorties by Ukrainian units here and there along this 1,200 kilometer long line of confrontation and so it would appear that their counter-offensive has not entirely petered out. No, of course that's true.
Nonetheless most of the heavy equipment which the United States and its NATO allies have shipped to Ukraine has now been destroyed. The Russians have made manifestly clear that most of the Leopard tanks have been destroyed and they show daily pictures of their being set afire by Lancet drones and by other weapons that they have adapted precisely to this task. So the loss of heavy equipment, the loss of 90,000 or more soldiers since the June counter-offensive began has been an enormous setback for Ukraine.
In the same time – although the Russians have had losses and they say that there is one Russian soldier lost for every eight Ukrainians killed or sent off the field of battle permanently from the last four months or three months of warfare… Nonetheless the Russians have a much larger army, a much larger reserve, and they are fully capable of provisioning their army, from their own manufactured armaments, whereas Ukraine is 100% dependent on the west for shipments of arms if it is to have any soldiers in the field. This does not change.
The initiative is now shifting in front of our eyes from the Ukrainians, whose reserves are exhausted, to the Russians, who are ready to strike. How they will strike, when they will strike, nobody knows for sure. That is a picture of what is to come.
Shiban Jno:
Right. Russia remains ready whereas Ukraine – the kind of support that it was getting from the US, that support has gotten divided with of course Israel-Hamas taking over most national headlines, international headlines and of course even the US attention in terms of the kind of provisions that they're offering and the kind of support that they're giving.
Sir, I also wanted to you know your opinion on this, on Russia's global influence: Now the no-limits partnership with China, the close ties with North Korea and Iran. Even during the current Israel-Hamas war we saw Arab leaders visiting Russia for talks and possible solutions. Talk to us about Russia's global imprint under Putin's reign if he retains power.
Gilbert Doctorow:
It's only going to grow. Even President Biden has acknowledged that there's going to be a new world order which he hopes will nonetheless be an American dominated global order. That's improbable. The reality before our eyes – as you had just mentioned – is that whole regions – in this case it is the Middle East – are now very clearly marching in the direction that Russia has helped to pioneer.
Now let's be clear about it: The relative economic weight of Russia, the relative ability of Russia to be an attractive investor in the Global South is relatively minor compared to the possibilities of the much larger population and economy of China. In that sense China is the world leader in the movement to multipolarity, a leader in terms of economic heft.
On the other hand Russia is clearly now the owner of the world's strongest military. All discussion that we've heard in the last six months to a year about China being the biggest military force: It's nonsense! Russia is the world's biggest, strongest military force, arguably stronger than the United States. That is a factor of great importance to many parts of this Global South, who are in need of defense agreements and defense providers. In that sense Russia is arguably alongside China a leader in fact and not only in thinking about the Global South and that is likely to increase in the coming years, because the Russian economy is becoming much stronger as a manufacturing industry, is growing in front of our eyes.
So the the Global South is being led intellectually, materially, in defense areas, by two countries: Russia and China. And that is the path ahead for the several years if not decades to come.
Shiban Jno:
So even West Asian nations are moving in the direction of Russia to look for some kind of solution to the ongoing conflict and if you look at other nations in the Global South: They're also moving in the direction of Russia and China.
So I also want to just take it a little further from there. If you talk about the African region in particular, there is a defense deal in the works between Russia and Libya that we've heard of recently. Russia is moving to expand its military presence in the region with the possibility of a naval base. We've also seen Russia's influence over the Sahel region and will we see the complete ouster of western forces from Africa the way we saw in Niger recently?
Gilbert Doctorow:
I think that is a likelihood. Nonetheless these countries I think are not going to trade subservience to their former colonial masters for subservience to a Russia or a China. I believe it's in their interests and they have some very intelligent leaders to maintain a balance and to play off the sides. So there will be pluses and minuses in the years to come for either of the pretenders at global leadership whether it's in the west or or in the new Russia-China-alliance. But you could not be able to say – as Americans – were saying going back in 2014 that this country or that country has been picked up and put into our following. No. The countries of Africa will likely remain free and will make their own decisions, now that they're just beginning to breathe the air of sovereignty.
Shiban Jno:
Dr. Doctorow, I now need to quickly take one more question with you. If not Putin – and you did initially speak about a great team that he has. He is not the sole runner of the Russian Federation or the sole leader in the Russian Nation. He has an entire team and he has a great set of minds. If not Putin then who runs for the top position in Russia?
Gilbert Doctorow:
You will note that Mr. Putin has not cultivated any of his team to replace himself. Nonetheless to any outside observer it is clear who among his entourage in the government and in the legislature could fill that role and the outstanding person in my estimation is Mikhail Mishustin, the Prime Minister. He is a man of great energy, a man of great intellectual capacity. He is a mathematics wizard. He is not a bad public speaker, but not inspirational. But then Mr. Putin wasn't inspirational at the start of his 23 years in power. He was a very modest or unimpressive speaker. So Mr. Mischustin comes to my mind as the most capable person to fill Putin's shoes.
Nonetheless let it be said that Mr. Putin has the experience of dealing with the world's most difficult challenges and showing remarkable restraint. That element of his personality has yet to be proven by any of the people in his surrounding, because they have not sat in the pilot seat.
Mr. Putin at the same time… Let me say that: Although his team has a certain homogeneity it is by no means exclusively consisting of one set of government principles. He has a certain minority, particularly in finance and the head of the Central Central Bank, Nabiullina, they are hold overs from the neoliberal economists who were predominant in the Russian government in the 1990s, when they wrecked Russian society and economy. Nonetheless there are among them some very capable economists and finance experts whom he has not thrown out. The man has kept talent for the sake of Russia's betterment, even if the majority of his cabinet and legislators have not been approving of these heterodox views.
So this complexity of his management for example: He kept the finally treasonous Prigozhin working alongside the regular army and was willing even to let him go alive after the mutiny. That is a demonstration of his management principle of trying to get the best out of all the people who are under him even if they are thieves – and there have been thieves among his group like Chubais, who finally left – to get the best talents to help Russia go forward and that remains the case. Within his management group I think we will find his successor.
Shiban Jno:
Thank you so much for joining in, sir. Always a pleasure to speak with you. You never mince any words. You never take any pauses. You're very clear in your thoughts and thank you so much for sharing them with us.
That was Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, international affairs analyst, author, and historian, joining us on WEON „World is One“.
Gilbert Doctorow:
Thank you.